Their Own Data Just Ended the Mandate Narrative

Alberta’s Report Was the Warning. This Paper Is the Proof.

Nine months ago, I dissected Alberta’s COVID-19 Task Force report — the one that exposed how the province had tossed aside its own pre-existing pandemic response plan and let Ottawa take the wheel. Their verdict? Alberta (and by extension the entire country) got almost everything backwards — masking, lockdowns, school closures, capacity limits, and above all the vaccine mandates and passports. All of it sold as “following the science,” all of it resting on evidence that ranged from weak to non-existent to outright fabricated (though the report itself stopped short of that accusation, and avoided any direct assignment of blame).

I ended that post with a warning:

“For the report to get the traction it deserves, it will be necessary to address the large body of poor-quality studies that is providing cover… The statistical game must be revealed in a way that completely obliterates the political narrative and exposes the key players.”

Predictably, the report vanished under the usual avalanche of “anti-science,” “fringe,” and “debunked” headlines. Timothy Caulfield led the charge, of course — the same guy whose “misinformation” empire is funded by the very government he defends (my ATIP request on that is… illuminating).

Then silence. Consensus declared victory.

That’s how counter-narratives die in 2025: not with evidence, but with name-calling and a collective memory wipe.

I didn’t let it die.

I spent the last nine months (!!) doing exactly what I said needed doing: taking the official Canadian surveillance data — PHAC, PHO, Ontario Science Table — and performing the statistical audit the agencies never dared to run on themselves.

The result is now public.

Open-access preprint: “Unreliable Evidence: Flawed Vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated Comparisons in Canada’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates”

https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uwtzn_v1

This paper is the statistical kill-shot the Alberta report needed — but stopped short of delivering.

It shows, using only their own numbers:

• >40% of early post-vaccination cases misclassified as “unvaccinated” in the run-up to passports.

• An 80-fold overestimation of unvaccinated senior hospitalization rates (PHO’s own correction they quietly buried)

• >40–55 % of “COVID hospitalizations” in later waves were incidental positives — people in for broken legs, heart attacks, childbirth, etc. who happened to test positive.

• “Reduced disease severity” — the single phrase repeated ad nauseam by every premier and health officer — was never defined, never given a measurable threshold, and never tested against any standard that could justify coercion.

• A complete absence of all-cause hospitalization linkage — the only metric that could have proven net protection of the healthcare system.

When Omicron turned the real-world data upside down (vaccinated > unvaccinated case rates), the response wasn’t humility. It was Fisman’s fully simulated fantasy models and Tam’s counterfactual “lives saved” fan-fiction.

The evidentiary standard wasn’t bent.
It was abandoned.

This isn’t interpretation.
It’s their data, their caveats, their footnotes.

Alberta’s report said the emperor had no clothes.
This paper reveals the naked truth.

Read it. Share it. Use it in court.
Because the next time someone says “we followed the science,” we now have the receipts to answer: No. You followed the politics.

Abstract – Results section highlighted. Read it and try to tell me the mandates had a scientific leg to stand on.

P.S. – They’re already trying to bury it.

Within 24 hours:

• 1,000+ likes

• 55 % reshares

• 40 % bookmarks

• 500+ downloads

Then everything flat-lined.

According to Grok (Elon’s own AI), this is textbook algorithmic throttling.

So here’s the direct, unfiltered link one more time:

Download it. Email the link to every lawyer, MP, and parent you know.

Because the harder they throttle, the louder we get.

P.P.S.

This entire thing — the Alberta follow-up, the preprint, every waking hour I poured into it — was 100 % unfunded.

If this work is useful to you or someone you care about, please consider a donation. Every dollar keeps the next fight alive.

Thank you — truly — to everyone who has refused to let this die, and to my family who kept the lights on while I disappeared down this rabbit hole for the better part of a year.

https://ko-fi.com/reginawatteel

#VaccineMandates #CharterRights #Cdnpoli #PHOFiles #PHACFiles

— Regina