Replacing fact with fiction to vilify Canadians

The Fisman et al. SARS-Cov-2 population mixing study FLIPS reality to inform policy and punish the unvaccinated.

The following e-Letter was submitted to CMAJ on May 7th, 2022 seeking a retraction of the critically flawed study (a more detailed and scathing rebuke is on the way!):

A simple deterministic model was developed to simulate hypothetical outcomes of incident cases in Ontario under various group mixing scenarios [1]. The model itself is wholly inadequate, poorly constructed, the baseline conditions are vaguely specified, key parameters and classifications poorly defined, model assumptions highly biased and the interpretation of their results fundamentally flawed.

Perhaps the most important shortcoming of this modelling exercise is that it lacks any meaningful hypothesis or model fitting. To be clear:

(1) No hypothesis is being tested and no observational data is modelled in this study, therefore no meaningful inferences can be drawn about the real-world impact of population mixing regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission;

(2) This is not a factual study. The model is exploratory in nature with absolutely no benchmarking or validation of any kind.

Moreover, their results follow from basic diffusion principles. The authors concocted a model that simply projects their false expectations. Nothing more. The conclusion “we found that the choices made by people who forgo vaccination contribute disproportionately to risk among those who do get vaccinated” is clearly erroneous given that no people were involved in this study. No real-world observations were used at all.

The authors make no attempt to test their model or to reconcile the obvious discrepancy between the incidence rates produced by their model and the actual incidence rates observed during the Dec. 2021 – Jan. 2022 epidemic wave, the first true test of the vaccination strategy in Canada. Incredulously, the authors then proceed to use the simulated outcomes from their modelling exercise as a basis to inform public policy whilst failing to even recognize the necessity of looking at the actual real-world outcomes! A quick visit to the official Ontario Covid-19 website [2] uncovers a stark contrast between reality and the authors’ “findings.” Indeed, the simulated results are opposite to the reality that played out in Ontario during the Dec/Jan epidemic wave.

In short, the study concocted a model simulation that FLIPPED reality, then proceeded to inform policy based on it. More specifically, the study leveraged a false premise to support public policy aimed at enhancing vaccine uptake and limiting access to public spaces for unvaccinated people.

This critically flawed work is highly divisive. The quick dissemination of the fictitious findings has resulted in the propagation of fear, mistrust, and derisive attitudes towards a segment of the population in the real world who bear absolutely no resemblance to the entities in Fisman et al.’s model.

We cannot pretend that the epidemic wave in Dec/Jan never happened and simply overwrite it with a faulty simulation that says the opposite. I request that CMAJ retract this paper.

References:

[1] David N. Fisman, Afia Amoako, Ashleigh R. Tuite. Impact of population mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated subpopulations on infectious disease dynamics: implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. CMAJ 2022;194:E573-E580

[2] https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#vaccinationStatus4Eligible